Assuming I can’t rely on there being a user agent string, can I tell simply from the IP address if a connected client originates on a mobile network?
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there are certain IP ranges that are dedicated to mobile networks by their owners (i just googled the adresses for RIM (blackberry) ). There is no IP range dedicated to mobile networks by the IANA, though, so you would have to go search the ranges for every possible provider. Further, you would have to search for the addresses of every mobile to web proxy (i.e. the one used by opera mobile). And you would still NOT catch the clients that are on WiFi, use a private proxy or a VPN…
so, in short, yes, you can to a degree tell from an IP address if a client is on a mobile network, but it would require a hard to maintain lookup DB and you wouldn’t catch all mobile clients