I asked a question on here a few weeks ago, and everyone said I needed to look at the .ipa file and that was it (to stay under 50 mb). However, I was browsing Apples iTunes Connect website from questions, and they posted this:
Why did Apple make my app file size larger than the .zip file I uploaded for my binary in iTunes Connect?
When your application is approved by Apple to sell on the App Store, it is encrypted for DRM purposes and re-compressed. When the encryption is added, the size of the compressed file will increase. The exact size of the increase will vary from app to app, however, the size increase can be large when the binary contains a lot of contiguous zeros. We are unable to guarantee the size of your file after the encryption has been added.
iOS apps with a final size of up to 50MB can be downloaded over the 3G network. Larger iOS apps will require a Wi-Fi connection.
So does that mean the .ipa file is going to increase once they encrypt it, or is the .ipa file already encrypted?
You can check the estimated App Store size in Organizer after you archive your app. In my case, the actual file size is even smaller than the estimate (828k vs 534k).