Is there a way to calculate the largest possible file size for a JPEG image with a fixed resolution?
For example, is it possible to say that a 1024×768 image has a maximum file size of 3MB?
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No there is not. It uses quantization matrices to try and reduce frequencies to 0, depending on how good that works, and how much of a pattern occurs for all these values, the compression becomes more efficient.
See JPEG Wikipedia Article, section Codec Example for more details on how the compression works. It should become clear from that that it is not possible.