Suppose you want to get from point A to point B. You use Google Transit directions, and it tells you:
Route 1:
1. Wait 5 minutes
2. Walk from point A to Bus stop 1 for 8 minutes
3. Take bus 69 till stop 2 (15 minues)
4. Wait 2 minutes
5. Take bus 6969 till stop 3(12 minutes)
6. Walk 7 minutes from stop 3 till point B for 3 minutes.
Total time = 5 wait + 40 minutes.
Route 2:
1. Wait 10 minutes
2. Walk from point A to Bus stop I for 13 minutes
3. Take bus 96 till stop II (10 minues)
4. Wait 17 minutes
5. Take bus 9696 till stop 3(12 minutes)
6. Walk 7 minutes from stop 3 till point B for 8 minutes.
Total time = 10 wait + 50 minutes.
All in all Route 1 looks way better. However, what really happens in practice is that bus 69 is 3 minutes behind due to traffic, and I end up missing bus 6969. The next bus 6969 comes at least 30 minutes later, which amounts to 5 wait + 70 minutes (including 30 m wait in the cold or heat). Would not it be nice if Google actually advertised this possibility? My question now is: what is the better algorithm for displaying the top 3 routes, given uncertainty in the schedule?
Thanks!
If you take uncertainty into account then there is no longer a “best route”, but instead there can be a “best strategy” that minimizes the total time in transit; however, it can’t be represented as a linear sequence of instructions but is more of the form of a general plan, i.e. “go to bus station X, wait until 10:00 for bus Y, if it does not arrive walk to station Z…” This would be notoriously difficult to present to the user (in addition of being computationally expensive to produce).
For a fixed sequence of instructions it is possible to calculate the probability that it actually works out; but what would be the level of certainty users want to accept? Would you be content with, say, 80% success rate? When you then miss one of your connections the house of cards falls down in the worst case, e.g. if you miss a train that leaves every second hour.
I wrote many years a go a similar program to calculate long-distance bus journeys in Finland, and I just reported the transfer times assuming every bus was on schedule. Then basically every plan with less than 15 minutes transfer time or so was disregarded because they were too risky (there were sometimes only one or two long-distance buses per day at a given route).