When estimating tasks, how does one break from the grip of Hofstadter’s law?
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When estimating tasks, how does one break from the grip of Hofstadter’s law?
If you can politically: Estimate in small chunks, work in small iterations, and focus attention on what caused the deviation from the estimate to make the next estimate better.
One of the major causes of bad estimates in my experience is the lack of experience actually using the architecture planned for the project. By adjusting the estimates as things become more concrete and clear the estimates get better over time.
The other major cause of bad estimates is bogus estimates. Estimates kept artificially low to win a bid. The only way a consulting firm can break that cycle is give good estimates and win enough projects and deliver on the estimates to earn a reputation that they hit their estimates. Enough clients will respect that to make a reasonable business out of it, but building that up will be hard.