How can I decide the oldest iOS version to support in my app?
Are there any kind of usage / installation statistics to make this decision easier?
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Not officially, but a few of the big developers release statistics on their blogs. Instapaper is a good example. I’m sure there are more if you google around, but for me, its once a version hits 5% or less users, its ok to scrap support for it. (I recently stopped supporting iOS 3.x).
You could also check in your app and send it to a server or something to log and check your own statistics.